Global Beef Market in 2026: Supply Tightness and a High-Price Environment
According to Rabobank’s Global Animal Protein Outlook 2026, the global beef market will face tight supplies and persistently high prices in 2026. For the first time in six years, overall production of land-based animal proteins is expected to decline, with beef accounting for most of the contraction, despite growth in poultry and aquaculture.
Key drivers include developments in North America, Brazil, and China. In the United States and Canada, herd rebuilding after years of liquidation remains slow, limiting supply and supporting high prices. The U.S. is increasing imports while reducing exports, creating opportunities for suppliers from Brazil, Australia, and New Zealand.
Brazil is entering a phase of herd rebuilding by retaining females, which temporarily reduces slaughter volumes, but it remains a strategic exporter, particularly to China.
China, which accounts for about 30% of global beef imports, is expected to cut purchases by 2–3% due to constrained global supply and high prices rather than weaker demand.
In the European Union, beef production is stabilizing at low levels amid regulatory and environmental pressures, increasing reliance on imports and opening additional opportunities for MERCOSUR exporters.
Overall, 2026 will mark an adjustment to a new reality of limited supply and elevated prices, favoring countries with more efficient and resilient beef production systems.
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