Global Beef Market in 2026: Lower Production and Shifting Trade Flows
Global beef production is forecast to decline in 2026, while trade flows are expected to shift significantly due to reduced Chinese import demand and changing market dynamics.
Global beef production in 2026 is forecast to decline by 1% to 61.6 million tons, as lower output in Brazil, the United States, China, the European Union, and Australia outweighs increases in India, Mexico, and New Zealand. Brazil is expected to remain the world’s largest producer despite a decline in output. Production is also projected to fall in the EU and Australia, while Mexico is forecast to increase production by about 11% due to greater availability of slaughter-ready cattle.
Global beef exports are forecast to decrease by 1% to 13.8 million tons, with lower shipments from major exporters only partially offset by gains in India, Argentina, New Zealand, and Mexico.
China, the world’s largest importer, is expected to reduce imports by 13% following the implementation of tariff rate quotas, reshaping global trade flows.
U.S. beef production is forecast at 11.7 million tons (-1%), while exports are projected to decline by 8% due to tight domestic supplies, high prices, lack of access to China, and strong competition in Asian markets.
Source: USDA
