The Choice cutout was higher mid-Feb to mid-March before going lower into Apr as unseasonably cold weather in the U.S. delayed the start of the spring grilling season, and dipped below yr-ago levels for the first time in 2018 during the wk ending Apr 20 at $2.11/lb., down 2%.

The Choice/Select spread was $0.12/lb, down from $0.13/lb for the same wk last yr. For wk ending Apr 20, values were higher yr-o-yr for Choice brisket ($1.73/lb., +12%), short plate ($1.68, +8%), chuck ($1.71, +1%), and rib ($3.46, +1%), while lower for flank ($1.21, -2%), round ($1.66, -3%), and loin ($2.83, -9%). With delayed spring grilling demand, ribeyes ($7.48, -1%), tenderloins ($8.71, -14%), loin cuts: ball tips ($2.22, -28%), top butts ($3.12, -10%), NY strips ($6.44, -7%), and tri-tips $3.81, -4% were below yr-ago levels since 1st of March.

Briskets ($2.43, +13%) were strong but lower from their peak of $3.00/lb. in early Mar. Values for top blades (flat iron) ($3.99, +38%) and flank stks ($4.96, +1%) were up and petite tenders were slightly lower ($6.25, -2%).

Rib short ribs ($5.53, +28%) & chuck short ribs ($3.47, +9%) are above yr-ago and previous 5-yr avg levels on strong exports; chuck rolls ($2.84, +14%) were over yr-ago levels, but lower in Apr; chuck shoulder clods ($2.15), top/inside rounds ($2.12), and other popular export cuts, were steady.

50% trim was $0.93/lb., down 10% yr-o-yr. Cash steer prices started lowering in Mar after being above yr-ago levels, and were down 5% from last yr at $1.22/lb wk ending Apr 16. A record % of production graded Prime, with the yr-to-date Prime % at 8%, up from 6.1% last yr. 72.2% of fed beef production graded Choice, compared to 72.6% last yr, and 16.6% graded Select, the same as last yr. Thru the 1st wk of Apr, total fed beef production was up 1.6%, with Choice up 1%, & Prime up 33%. Cattle on feed in Apr are up 7% from last yr and 8% from the previous 5-yr avg--the 2nd highest inventory for the mo. of Apr since 1996.

USDA’s April forecast is for beef production to be record large in 2018, up 5.6% to 12.54 mill MT. Apr 20 live cattle futures are down from Feb with expected larger supplies in the 2nd & 3rd Q: Apr $119.35 (-$7.90).

SOURCE: USMEF